THE RISKS OF DOING BUSINESS WITH IRAN

THE RISKS OF DOING BUSINESS WITH IRAN

by Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Investors should be extremely cautious about doing business with Iran. Having assisted numerous profitable international companies in the region, I would strongly argue that at the moment, the risks of making long-term investments in Iran outweigh the benefits.

I totally understand why investors may find Iran appealing at first glance. It is still known as the largest untapped emerging market in the world.

It is the second-largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa after Saudi Arabia.It has an estimated $1.35 trillion of purchasing-power parity, making it the world’s 18th-largest economy.

It has the region’s second-largest population after Egypt, and is the world’s 17th most populous nation, with some 82 million people. Iran’s market appears to be multidimensional, with very profitable energy, consumer, mining and tech sectors. Foreign products — primarily American, followed by European then Asian — are very popular among Iranians.

Western firms may jump to invest in Iran because they do not want to fall behind their Asian counterparts. The impetus for European companies may be Europe’s slow economic growth. But due to geopolitics, volatility and the changing dynamics between the US and the region, all these attractions should not delude companies into investing.

The first major risk is linked to Washington’s Iran policy. US pressure and sanctions on Tehran will likely continue to escalate, affecting American and non-American companies. The US may re-impose its sanctions bill that targets non-American companies doing business with Iran. If a company does business with both countries, its investments could be in peril. Quitting Iran’s market would not be easy for those with long-term investments.

The second danger concerns political stability. Most of the young population are disenchanted with the ruling clerics. This, and increasing regional pressure from a united front of Arab states and the US, do not provide a ripe environment for investors to do business with Iran.

The US may re-impose its sanctions bill that targets non-American companies doing business with Iran. If a company does business with both countries, its investments could be in peril.

Thirdly, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls much of Iran’s economy, are tightening their grip on the market. This state-generated economy creates less competition and more bureaucracy. Some foreign industries and companies will find it challenging and not lucrative to do business with Iran, particularly given legal trade frameworks and limited labor laws.

The next risk relates to UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. If the nuclear deal collapses or it is proved that Tehran is violating it, sanctions may be re-imposed. Finally, some Iranian entities and individuals are still blacklisted, for reasons including violating UNSC resolutions and crimes against humanity. When doing business with Iran, it is difficult to know if these entities and individuals have stakes in those business deals.

This can lead to legal issues and impact the credibility of investors and firms. Similarly, countries in the region that are negatively impacted by Tehran’s activities may decide not to deal with those foreign companies. In addition, most profits go to the regime, not the people, so doing business with Iran would empower the regime to further repress the population and advance its regional hegemonic ambitions.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated, Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. 

Don't whitewash the Iranian regime's crimes

By:Amir Basiri

Last week, the Iranian regime took the ambassadors of 45 foreign countries for a tour of the notorious Evin prison in Tehran to judge for themselves how the state treats prisoners. The tour came one day after Javad Larijani, the head of the Iranian regime's so-called "Human Rights Organization," claimed there are no political prisoners in Iran.

This was an attempt to debunk the increasing wave of international criticism at Iran's human rights violations, especially in its prisons.

In the evidently pre-arranged setting, visitors were taken to distinct locations where prisoners were shown to have access to education, media, communications, and work. Disappointingly, some of the attendants, including the ambassadors of Indonesia, Portugal, and South Korea, praised the regime for the humane conditions in its prisons and its treatment of prisoners, according to state-run media.

Meanwhile, political prisoners continue to linger under unbearable conditions in prisons that no foreign diplomat is allowed to visit.

One example is Majid Assadi, a political activist who was arrested by agents of the regime's intelligence ministry on Feb. 18. Assadi was kept in solitary confinement under severe duress for 50 days, and was incarcerated in Evin's wards 209 and 240 for months before being transferred to the Gohadasht prison in Karaj, west of Tehran. Incidentally, his transfer took place a short while before the foreign ambassadors' tour of Evin.

After months, Assadi still awaits to be tried for charges of supporting the opposition group People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran.

Assadi previously served another four-year prison term from 2011 to 2015 for attending a ceremony commemorating the victims of the 1999 student protests in Tehran.

Assadi is one of the countless political prisoners who have suffered or continue to suffer at the hands of the Iranian regime.

The regime's treatment toward dissidents, especially members and supporters of MEK, has been brutal throughout the years. In 1988, in a massive purge of Iran's prisons, the regime executed 30,000 political prisoners, most being linked to MEK. Mostafa Pourmohamadi, Iran's current justice minister, was one of the main orchestrators of the heinous crime. Ebrahim Raisi, a presidential candidate in the recent presidential elections, was another key player in the event that has become known as the "1988 massacre."

Recent years have seen no decline in the harsh treatment of activists and dissidents.

A few weeks ago, Shabnam Madadzadeh, a political activist who recently escaped Iran, gave a harrowing account of the conditions in Gohardasht prison, where Assadi is now being held. During her incarceration, Madadzadeh was threatened to be executed, beaten, deprived of family visits, and phone calls, and she was kept in solitary confinement for long periods.

In 2014, the regime executed political prisoner Gholamreza Khosravi, defying a widespread international campaign to halt the sentence.

In 2012, Sattar Beheshti, a blogger, was tortured to death in Evin prison, the same complex that the foreign ambassadors toured, for having posted online content that criticized the regime's judicial system.

These are just some of the many examples of how the regime treats dissidents. The truth is, the crimes that the Iranian regime has committed against its people and especially in its prisons will not be washed away with any amount of charade setups such as the one it held last week in the Evin prison.

However, whether made out of ignorance or in hopes of currying economic and political favors, the irresponsible remarks made by foreign diplomats will give the regime free rein to continue persecuting, torturing and executing dissidents while it still clings on to power.

The Iranian people will not forget nor forgive the regime's crimes, and will not relent until its officials are held to full account for their atrocities. The least that the international community can do is not to attempt whitewashing the crimes of their murderers.

Amir Basiri (@amir_bas) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. He is an Iranian human rights activist.

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