Iran -- What Will Come Next?

After three weeks of unrest in most parts of Iran, the situation now seems to be calm, although some protests still continue. Does this mean that the revolt has lost steam and that the government has managed, at least for a period of time, to postpone the final confrontation?

Certainly not. Despite the slump in demonstrations and attacks on state buildings, the motives for the uprising still remain. The regime of the Ayatollahs has no cure for the bankrupt economy that ignited the protests. The wealth of Iran has been plundered by the government and spent for terrorist activities and meddling in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Above all, grave violations of human rights inside Iran are still continuing.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/01/iran__what_will_come_next.html#ixzz55nQvXmxD
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

To judge what the Ayatollahs have done to Iran’s economy, it may be sufficient to notice the price of dollar which was less than 100 rials in 1978, when Ayatollah Khomeini grasped power, comparing to that of today, which is over 40,000 rials. Officials in Tehran are worried. Salimi, a member of Iran’s parliament, said, “One of the problems in our country today is the increasing number of graduates who can’t find a job. We are facing with an army of the unemployed.” Another member of Iranian parliament said, “Many of our banks have gone bankrupt, government is facing a budget deficit of 50,000 billion rials.”

A review of the debates in Iran’s last presidential election sheds light on some of the miseries that the mullahs have inflicted on Iranian people. In the debate before Iran’s May 19 presidential election, all six candidates said that the country’s economy was in ruins. Vice President Ecehagh Jahangiri revealed that one reason for Iran’s poor economy was the existence of a smuggling market valued at $12 billion annually. Ebrahim Raisi, another presidential candidate and a member of the death committee of the 1988 massacre, said the value of the smuggling market is $18 billion annually. Another asserted that “Smuggled goods are imported via 114 official piers. This situation would not be understandable anywhere in the world.” Meanwhile, a huge number of workers, who are forced to work under medieval laws, have not received their salaries for months. Workers demonstrating in Tehran and other Iranian cities, demanding their unpaid salaries, are often arrested and jailed by the armed forces.

A country that exports almost 4 million barrels of oil every day and has giant resources of gas has a rate of unemployment from 12.5 to even 60 per cent in some areas. Ebrahim Razaghi, an economist, told the pro-government news agency Tasnim, “60 to 70 per cent of Iran’s producers are bankrupt or out of business. 20 to 30 million people are in need of food, while some of the officials receive salaries over 100 hundred million rials.” Meanwhile, a close ally of Supreme Leader Khamenei confessed that 40 million Iranians live under the poverty line, 11 million do not have a proper house and live on the outskirts. The Ministry for Labor and Social Welfare in Rouhani’s government has announced that 12 million Iranians cannot afford proper food.

Transparency International has placed Iran among the most corrupt states. A report by this organization says that groups inside the government, which control the economy, normally act on their own and do not respond to any authority. In related news, in 2013, Reuters revealed an entity worth over $95 billion belonging to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Fox news also reported that Iran is spending billions of dollars on its weapons programs and supporting terrorism around the globe while it ignores the basic needs of its people. The report is titled “Primary Causes of Poverty and Popular Uprisings in Iran.” issued by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). It asserts that the annual minimum cost to Iranians of keeping the “clerical regime in power” is about $55 billion.

In an attempt to suppress the revolt, both factions inside the regime pretend that the uprising is extinct and everything is now back to normal, but the root cause of unrest -- the dire economic situation of millions of poor people – remains. For a regime with a record of 63 condemnations in the U.N. General Assembly for its flagrant violations of human rights, the gap between the people and the government is so deep that it will only be healed by the collapse of mullah’s government.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/01/iran__what_will_come_next.html#ixzz55nRUXoSC
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

Iraq’s Maliki welcomes Hezbollah-negotiated deal with ISIS

Iraqi Vice President and leader of the State of Law coalition Nouri al-Maliki welcomed the recent Hezbollah-negotiated deal with ISIS and said the decision to transfer hundreds of ISIS fighters from Lebanese borders to the Syrian city of Deir az-Zour was the right decision.

The deal has sparked outrage in Iraq with many politicians, including Prime Minister Haidar Abadi, condemning the deal.

Maliki said the deal was part of the battle’s strategy against terrorism, noting that what happens in Deir az-Zour and Abu Kamal are Syrian matters while overlooking that these two areas are adjacent to the Iraqi borders where Iraqi troops are combating terrorism.

Among those slamming the deal is Iraqi Al-Ahrar parliamentary bloc Member of Parliament Awad al-Awadi who said the Syrian government “can go to hell” if Iraqi blood will be shed for its sake.

Awadi, who represents the Sadrist movement, added that no Iraqi will accept to compromise at the expense of the Iraqi people’s blood. In another interview with Al-Hadath television station, Awadi called on the Iraqi government to take stronger stances towards the deal.

Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the alliance of Arab tribes in Ninevah Sheikh Muzahim al-Hawyeet told Al-Hadath that tribes reject the deal, adding that transferring ISIS fighters to areas adjacent to the Iraqi border is a new threat against Sunni governorates.

Hawyeet also said that the alliance between ISIS and Iranian-backed militias has been exposed and called on the international coalition to shell any convoy that attempts to come near Iraqi borders.

Hezbollah militias have allowed ISIS elements to ride buses to get out of Lebanon’s Jroud and go to Deir al-Zour under an agreement involving the Syrian regime amid controversial accusations that Hezbollah is making deals at the expense of the Lebanese army.

In response, Abadi rejected the deal while Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri warned of going back to square one and rejected any deal that may bring ISIS back into Iraq or close to its borders.

In response to the official Iraqi stance, Hezbollah justified the agreement by saying that it stipulates transferring ISIS fighters and their families from Syrian territories to other Syrian territories.

Iraqi media websites warned of the agreement’s repercussions and reported that Iranian intelligence members, upon coordination with Maliki and their envoy Iraj Masjedi, agreed to supply ISIS members with dangerous weapons.

The reports added that Tehran decided to avenge from Sadr after he visited a number of Arab countries.

Senior US Senators meet Iran opposition leader in Albania

1. 

While August seems usually a passive time of the year in politics, it has been quite the opposite for Iran and the wide variety of developments around this controversial international dossier.

A senior delegation of United States Senators travelled to Tirana, the capital of Albania, today, August 12, 2017, to meet the Iranian opposition leader Maryam Rajavi, who heads the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

The delegation, Senators Roy Blunt, Vice President of the Republican Conference, and member of the Appropriation, Select Intelligence, Rules and Administration, and Commerce, Science, and Transportation committees; John Cornyn, the Majority Whip, and a member of the Judiciary, Select Intelligence, and Finance committees; and Thom Tillis, a member of the Armed Services, Judiciary, Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs and Veterans’ Affairs committees, also visited members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) in the Albanian capital.

The NCRI is a political coalition calling for regime change in Iran and considered the main threat to Tehran’s mullahs. The MEK is the main member of this coalition of a variety of Iranian dissident groups and individuals.

“Led by Senator Blunt, the delegation congratulated the safe and secure relocation of all Camp Liberty residents outside of Iraq and wished them success in their struggle for democracy and human rights in Iran,” according to an NCRI statement.

Rajavi expressed her gratitude for the tireless efforts of the U.S. Senate, particularly Senator Blunt, regarding the protection of thousands of MEK members in Iraq, and their safe relocation to Albania.

Senator Blunt was among several American dignitaries, including senior former officials, who at a July 2014 Senate briefing strongly condemned Iran’s highly destructive role in Iraq. While describing Tehran as part of the problem plaguing Baghdad and the entire country, Senator Blunt joined the initiative in demanding the urgent transfer of PMOI/MEK members stationed in a former US military base known as Camp Liberty near the Iraqi capital.

Senator Blunt and his colleagues John McCain (R-AZ) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and former Senator Carl Levin had urged former Secretary of State John Kerry to “press for the protection of Camp Liberty and to expedite the resettlement of the Camp Residents to countries outside Iraq, including the United States.”

NEW SANCTIONS ON IRAN, NOW IT'S TIME FOR A NEW US POLICY TOO

By Alireza Jafarzadeh

On the second anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, some argue that the agreement succeeded in slowing Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon. However, the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program are only limited, as is the international inspectors’ access to the country’s illicit facilities.In addition, in areas unrelated to the nuclear agreement,

the Iranian regime’s behavior has only gotten worse over the past two years. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has escalated its nefarious activities in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, has deliberately sought out close encounters with American warships, and has boasted of new Iranian military equipment.

Three ways to find the real deals on Amazon

Here’s some trivia for you: Amazon, the largest and most versatile…

 The White House’s efforts to enforce a harder line on Iran policy is well justified and the president’s signing into law of H.R. 3364, which included a title, “Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act of 2017” is a step in the right direction.

In June, the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed details of the escalation of the Iranian missile program, proving the nuclear threat to be real. The opposition coalition identified more than 40 sites for missile development, manufacturing, and testing, all of which were under the control of the IRGC. What’s more, at least one of those sites was known to be collaborating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Farsi acronym SPND, the institution tasked with weaponization activities related to the Iranian nuclear weapons program. SPND activities have continued since the JDPOA.

Such revelations clarified what should already be common knowledge: Iran’s nuclear weapons activities have continued. Even worse, myopic focus on the nuclear issues has distracted attention from the Iranian regime’s terrorism sponsorship, regional intervention, and human rights abuses.

If the IRGC continues to acquire more wealth through its large-scale control of the de-sanctioned Iranian economy, combined with continued lack of access to the nuclear sites of SPND, Iran will undoubtedly deliver a nuclear weapon.

To its credit, the US. has taken steps toward addressing the underlying problem of the IRGC’s expanding control over Iranian affairs. Soon after taking office, Mr. Trump urged the administration to review designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization. With the new Iran sanctions bill now signed into law, the administration should expand all anti-terror sanctions to the whole of the IRGC, including its affiliate entities and associated financial and economic arms.

This is a meaningful start to a new Iran policy that is comprehensive in its aims and in its enforcement. Toward that end, the US should work with the UN and EU to evict the IRCG from the combat zones in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This will help protect the West and its allies, as well as empower the Iranian people, who are seeking regime change and are more than capable of bringing it about on their own.

Without serious sacrifice, Western powers must do their part. The Iranian regime must be more isolated and financially handicapped by the United States. It must also be subject to pressure not just over its nuclear program but also over a range of current and past crimes, including illicit missile testing, escalating regional and sectarian conflicts in the Middle East, and the 1988 massacre of political prisoners. The United States should subject all major human rights violators of the Iranian regime, including dozens involved in the horrific 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners. Many of the perpetrators of this crime currently hold key positions in the Iranian regime.

These pressures will make a profound difference in the future of Iran, if coupled with reaching out to the people of Iran and their organized opposition. They will succeed in diminishing the power and influence of the IRGC; bolster the Iranian people and the prospect of the emergence of a truly democratic Iranian government. 

Alireza Jafarzadeh, the deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, is credited with exposing Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak in 2002, triggering International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. He is the author of "The Iran Threat" (Palgrave MacMillan: 2008). His email is Jafarzadeh@ncrius.org , and is on twitter @A_Jafarzadeh.

New sanctions show US sides with Iranian people, not the regime

Last week, the “Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act of 2017" received a rare and near unanimous bipartisan vote in Congress. The legislation placed more sanctions on the Iranian regime. It called for extending terrorism-related sanctions on the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Iran’s violators of human rights and its missile program, which is increasingly threatening world peace. It was signed into law earlier Wednesday.

This coincided with the second anniversary of the Iran nuclear deal. President Donald Trump has appointed a team in the White House to figure out how to deal with the agreement, but his administration has also correctly pointed out that the broader implications of that deal have by no means been positive.

Critics of the Obama administration’s conciliatory Iran policy understood that when sanctions relief was narrowly focused on the nuclear issue, Iran would be emboldened in other areas. They were right. Today, the regime is escalating its nefarious activities in the region, even carrying out several illicit ballistic missile tests in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

In contrast to the dictatorship, the Iranian people are overwhelmingly educated, pro-democracy and seek to live in coexistence with the outside world. Understandably, they have a keen awareness when it comes to the threats presented by the regime.

The opening to the regime by the West was illusory, as President Hassan Rouhani will not oversee a period of "moderation" in Tehran. Western policymakers should take into account the Iranian people when designing Iran policy and look at the organized opposition, which is ready and capable to change the regime from within.

Had any Western executive body wanted the input of progressively-minded Iranians, they could have visited Paris on July 1 to hear from what a speaker described as approximately 100,000 of them at the international gathering for Free Iran.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) President-elect Maryam Rajavi applauded the international community in her speech for beginning to turn away from the conciliatory policies that had been adopted in the run-up to the nuclear agreement. Rajavi urged the U.S. and the rest of the world to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, ousting it from regional conflicts and pursuing human rights charges against Iranian officials who participated in a massacre of 30,000 political prisoners, mainly the activists of the main opposition Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) in 1988.

The recent congressional consensus on Iran addresses many of such demands, i.e., subjecting the IRGC to terrorism-related sanctions, imposing additional missile sanctions and subjecting human rights violators to sanctions. The congressional language needs to be followed up by the administrations to do the following:

First, all the key entities and commanders of the IRGC and its affiliated groups need to be identified and subject to the sanctions under executive order 13224. Second, the IRGC and its affiliates must be expelled from the region, particularly Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Third, the list of rights violators must include all the key elements who ordered, facilitated and carried out the massacre of 1988. Finally, the organized opposition, which has been the main victims of repression, as well as the best hope for change, should be heard and their rights recognized to make a free Iran a reality.

If similar measures had been undertaken when the 2009 uprisings occurred, the show of international support very likely would have bolstered efforts to oust the clerical regime and establish a democracy in line with the secular and democratic principles long advocated by the NCRI.

The Free Iran rally exuded the promise that change in Iran is within reach. Several thousand protest actions have been recorded throughout Iran over the past year, even as the regime’s domestic crackdowns have escalated. The simmering resentment toward the regime is growing ever closer to spilling over into another mass uprising.

When the Trump administration is finished evaluating its post-nuclear deal policy on Iran, it would be a sharp departure from the past if these new realities on the ground are taken into consideration. It is time to recognize the right of the people for a free, non-nuclear and secular republic in Iran. 

Soona Samsami is the representative in the United States for the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which seeks the establishment of a democratic, secular and non-nuclear republic in Iran.

MEK/PMOI GAINS SUPPORT WHILE IRANIAN REGIME GETS WEAKER

Add caption

by Poorang Novak

The justice-seeking movement that wants the Iranian regime to be punished for the horrific massacre of MEK/PMOI members is gaining momentum, just weeks after the opposition’s event in Paris. On 1st July, tens of thousands of people attended the Free Iran rally and hundreds of former US and European government officials and prominent political figures spoke about the need for justice for the MEK/PMOI members who were killed during the 1988 massacre.

The Iranian regime is at an extremely low point. In the days before the grand gathering, Foreign Minister of Iran Javad Zarif went to Paris to try to stop the event from taking place. He was unable to manage this.

Not long later, Supreme Leader Khamenei sent his adviser Kamal Kharrazi to the French capital to declare that the MEK/PMOI is a “terrorist group” that has been involved in the murder of “thousands of ordinary citizens in Iran”. This is clearly an attempt to smear the MEK/PMOI’s solid reputation and to counter the increasing amount of support it is getting.

Kharrazi has been involved in activities that aim to badmouth the MEK/PMOI in the past. There was an alarming criminal conspiracy against the Resistance and the MEK/PMOI that resulted in the June 17, 2003 dossier that was a failure for the Iranian regime and its co-conspirators. The file was closed by the French authorities and the MEK/PMOI’s reputation was enhanced as a result.

The MEK/PMOI has been calling for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to be designated a foreign terror organisation. In retaliation, the Iranian regime has been fabricating files to use against the MEK/PMOI so that French authorities will change their opinion. Many other fabrications have taken place over the past ten years. It is the regime’s attempt to wage psychological warfare against the MEK/PMOI.

In 2005, it was revealed by a French lawyer that the Iranian regime wanted to blame the MEK/PMOI for the Halabja chemical attack that killed and injured thousands of Kurds at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. The regime was allegedly prepared to pay $100 million so the MEK/PMOI was implicated.

The Iranian regime, despite numerous attacks on the MEK/PMOI, has been unable to keep it down. The 1988 massacre which resulted in the death of more than 30,000 MEK/PMOI members and other such atrocities, that continue to this day, have not been able to dissuade people from resisting. The people want justice, freedom and democracy and they will not be stopped.

The MEK/PMOI was once listed as a terrorist organisation, but was understandably removed when it was properly understood that it has no terrorist links. However, this does not stop the regime from repeating the nonsense. Numerous officials, time and time again, try to make out like the MEK/PMOI carries out terrorist activities.

The MEK/PMOI is gaining more and more support, and an increasing number of important political figures are speaking out against the Iranian regime. At the recent rally in Paris, Senator Joseph Lieberman highlighted that Raqqa is not the capital of Islamic extremism and terrorism – it is in Tehran with the mullahs’ regime.

It is imperative for the Iranian regime to be held accountable for the crimes against humanity it has committed, but it is even more imperative that Iran sees regime change soon. A democratic alternative, a viable alternative, exists – the MEK/PMOI.

Opinion: Couple US sanctions with Middle East expulsion of Iran

By: Shahriar Kia *

2017-08-01 14:38:34

    The Iranian regime is attempting to secure a corridor through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, providing a supply route for its numerous terrorist proxies in the region.
Iran’s clandestine nuclear and ballistic missile drive, support for terrorism and domestic crackdown are all aimed at maintaining the Tehran’s fascist mullahs in power and pursue their regional policies.
This notorious objective, in direct conflict with those of the regional and global coalitions to fight terrorism and extremism, can be stopped. Eviction of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and all its proxy forces from the Middle East must complete the new US Congress sanctions. With President Donald Trump signaling his approval, this first and foremost step should be taken with hesitation following the sanctions.
The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to rally major new sanctions on Iran, parallel to measures on North Korea and Russia. To impose additional sanctions on Iran’s defense sector, the House voted 419-3. Coming after three weeks of negotiations, this bill “tightens the screws on our most dangerous adversaries,” explained House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), welcomed the adoption of a bill by both chambers of the US Congress which imposes new sanctions on the Iranian regime for violating human rights and pursuing ballistic missiles.
“Since several years ago, the Iranian Resistance had urged the terrorist designation of the IRGC, as it preserves the entirety of the clerical regime and acts as its main apparatus for domestic suppression and export of terrorism and fundamentalism,” she stressed. “However, the policy of appeasing the mullahs’ religious dictatorship paved the way for the IRGC and its proxies’ rampage in the entire region.”
A look back at the pivotal role Iran played in the rise and flourishing of ISIS, parallel to sectarian conflicts in the region, will help find the right tracks for security in the region.
In 2008, a joint campaign led by the U.S. military and Iraqi Sunnis rooted al-Qaeda in Iraq, the precursor to ISIS. However, the Obama administration’s decision to pull back and deliver the country to former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, a close ally of the Iranian regime, eventually led to the unraveling of all previous achievements.
Maliki dismantled the Iraqi “Awakening Council” and gave Iran free pass to exert its full influence on Iraq’s political and military apparatus.
In tandem, the destruction and crimes committed by the IRGC and Bashar al-Assad regime against the Syrian people provided the prefect breeding ground for sectarian strife and allowed ISIS to occupy a wide swath of land straddling both countries.
The Iranian regime became the main beneficiary of the rampage caused by ISIS and subsequently used it as an excuse to expand its clout by forming and later legalizing the IRGC-equivalent Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This entity has become notoriously renowned for its crimes against humanity, no less horrendous than those committed by ISIS.
Iran’s highest officials have time and again acknowledged funding and supporting the criminal militia forces in Iraq and Syria, expressing their vested interest in occupying neighboring countries through whatever means.
The Obama administration’s hands-off approach vis-à-vis Iran’s regional ambitions provided Tehran a far better opportunity to pursue its nefarious agendas under the pretext of fighting ISIS. Speculations raised U.S. officials on possible cooperation with Iran in the fight against terrorism only made matters worse.
Now, as ISIS is losing influence and ground, Iran is attempting to fill the gap. Letting it have its way would be a recipe for disaster, as proven in the past eight years.
Despite the threats and taunts broadcasted regularly Iran’s state media, the regime is far from capable or inclined to enter open warfare with any other state in the region or across the globe.
Tehran’s proxies are only as good as the funding and supplies the regime provides. Without IRGC support Iran’s proxies will be hard-pressed to spread their mayhem in the region.
Sanctions alone, however, will not be enough. Tehran has found ways to continue causing mischief under the toughest sanctions regime.
The threats rendered by Tehran will only end with regime change in Iran. This will initially benefit the people of Iran, being the first victims of this regime’s criminal ideology, and categorically reject its destructive foreign policy, both inside the country and abroad.
One of the greatest manifestations of the Iranian people’s desire for change was expressed at the July 1st Free Iran gathering in paris. Tens of thousands of Iranian expats as well as politicians, activists and religious figures from across the world attended the rally to express their solidarity and support for the cause of freedom and democracy in Iran.
The event had a clear message: regime change in Iran is the only viable solution for both the people of Iran and the region’s nations. There’s no need for another foreign conflict. The people of Iran and their organized resistance have the will, power and means necessary to realize this change.
Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal also addressed the massive gathering.
“So, you have coming together now a mighty coalition of forces, joining with the Resistance, and that should give us hope that we can make that [regime] change,” he stressed.


=======


*Shahriar Kia is an Iranian dissident and a political analyst on Iran and the Middle East. He is a member of the Iranian opposition and a graduate of North Texas University.

Understanding IRGC’s long-term goals in Iraq

ir

By:Hamid Bahrami

“I announce from here the end and failur

e and the collapse of the terrorist state of falsehood and terrorism which the terrorist Da’esh (ISIS) announced from Mosul,” the Iraqi Prime Minister declared on state television recently.

Following a three-year long blitz, Iraqi forces with the support of the international coalition, have now defeated ISIS in Mosul, despite all challenges and sectarian disputes.

But the defeat of ISIS has created a vacuum and there are some hard questions about Shi’ite militias such as the People Mobilization Units (PMU) that must be answered. This is particularly important because the PMU was established because of the sectarian divisions in Iraq.

But what role will the PMU play in the future of Iraq? Who will control and command the PMU? It is a known fact that some Shi’ite militant groups in Iraq – such as the Kata’ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq – are supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Thus, it is not surprising that these militias pursue IRGC’s goals and depend on Tehran for their financial and military supplies. It is worth pointing out that a few days ago, the commander of IRGC’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, said that the IRGC “had been working around the clock to arm the PMU” after its establishment.

This makes them under command of the IRGC’s Quds Force. Apart from financial affiliation and weapons, these groups have indicated that they believe in and are loyal to the Iranian regime’s ideology of Khomeinism who was the flagbearer of “the path to Quds(Jerusalem) goes through Karbala”.

In 2014, a Reuters report said that “Asaib and Kata’ib Hezbollah, who have sent fighters to Syria to defend Shii’te shrines ... recognize Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei as their spiritual leader.”

Based on the realities on the ground, it is no exaggeration that the regime in Tehran has the last word in Iraq and the IRGC controls some part of the current Iraqi government

Hamid Bahrami

Direct dependence on Tehran

Despite this direct dependence on Tehran, the PMU has been incorporated in Iraq’s armed forces. Muqtada al-Sadr, an influential Shii’te cleric who Lead one of the PMU's groups, expressed his concern with this development in Iraq in an interview and said, “I can see that Iraq will be under the control of militia groups.”

He then demanded that security should be exclusively under the control of Iraqi army. The Iranian regime has long sought to create a safe corridor from Iran to Lebanon. Consequently, the existence of a domestic paramilitary force parallel to the traditional army in Iraq is crucial for the IRGC and Tehran’s plan for future of that country.

Due to the growing demand in the US Congress and the White House contemplating to designate the entire IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the Iranian authorities, need a heavily-armed paramilitary force, such as the PMU, to keep the corridor safe and to achieve their goals in Iraq.

This is because the successful terror designation of the IRGC will limit the Iraqi government’s ability to cooperate and provide facilities to the Iranian regime. Hence at this stage after the defeat of ISIS, it is only the regime in Tehran who will profit and rip the benefits of the PMU’s existence.

In addition, the existence of a parallel paramilitary force with an extreme Shi’ite ideology will undermine the country’s constitution, as this militia will follow the politicians who support it rather than the country’s constitution or the government.

Replicating Hezbollah

In this case, the Iranian regime is trying to replicate its creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and strives to establish a similarly trustworthy paramilitary force in Iraq in order to take control and dominate the Iraqi politics in favor of its agenda.

It is true that there are disagreements among the militia groups, which form the PMU about the destructive and destabilizing actions of the IRGC. But the Iranian regime will try to bribe or eliminate any influential clerics or opposition, if this proves to be necessary.

Another reason for the Iranian regime increasing its intervention in Iraq today is the upcoming Iraqi elections. If the Islamic Dawa Party with the former Iranian-backed PM, Nouri al-Maliki, loses that elections to some other politicians like the progressive Shi’ite voice Ayad Allawi, the IRGC’s corridor will be threatened.

Unchallenged, the commander of IRGC’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani will use the PMU to tilt the upcoming elections in Iraq to Tehran’s favor and secure the outcome that the regime in Iran prefers.

The solution

So, what is the solution to prevent a new sectarian war in Iraq? As long as the Iranian regime and its proxies are allowed to continue their destructive role in Iraq, Iraqi people will never see peace.

Based on the realities on the ground, it is no exaggeration that the regime in Tehran has the last word in Iraq and the IRGC controls some part of the current Iraqi government.

However, the Iraqi government must now dissolve and dismantle the PMU, effectively, cutting off IRGC’s hand in Iraq. This is particularly important following the defeat of ISIS in Iraq.

It also needs to reconstruct the Iraqi army based on national interests and to run an independent foreign policy. The West and the Arab countries should push the Iraqi government towards this direction otherwise Iraq will be offered to the regime in Tehran in a silver plate.
______________________
Freelance journalist Hamid Bahrami has served as political prisoner in Iran. He is a human rights and political activist living in Glasgow, Scotland. His works covers Iran’s destructive actions in the Middle East and social crackdown in Iran. He tweets at @HaBahrami & blogs at analyzecom.

Trump and Macron Can Transform Mideast Starting With Iran

• 
  
• 
• Trump and Macron Can Transform Mideast Starting With Iran
• 
  
• 
• U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with French President Emmanuel Macron after posing for the family photo during the G20 summit on July 7, 2017 in Hamburg, Germany. (Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
• 
• By Raymond Tanter
• Wednesday, 12 Jul 2017 11:24 AM
• Current | Bio | Archive
• 
  
• 
  
• Donald Trump accepted Emmanuel Macron’s invitation to meet in Paris for the Bastille Day Parade on July 15. The American and French presidents had meaningful encounters in recent days, shaking hands in Brussels, and standing side-by-side for a group photograph at the G-20 Summit in Hamburg. Macron even left his assigned spot in the center and barged his way in front of others to have a private chat with Trump on the left side of the group shot!
• This year’s Bastille Day weekend allows the two leaders a chance to iron out details of bilateral cooperation and develop an approach regarding future Western policies toward the Middle East.
• Macron and Trump have common ground from which to build. The two have been favorably compared to each other for their pro-business records; although they focus on economic development and other improvements in their home countries, neither has proven willing to turn a blind eye to truly pressing problems around the world.
• On June 28, Agence France-Presse reports a telephone call between the two presidents; they agreed on a joint military response in the event of another chemical attack in Syria. On June 26, the White House said Assad appeared to be preparing another chemical weapons attack, and warned that he would “pay a heavy price,” if one took place.
• Macron and Trump are on the right side of the Syrian issue. In vowing to respond to what might be “crimes against humanity,” Macron is also staying true to France’s identity as a Great Power and global defender of rights and dignity. But the situation in Syria and surrounding area calls for more than a military response to blatant human rights violations. It requires a comprehensive strategy to root out causes of those abuses. Here is where Macron and Trump can expand on their common ground in Paris on Friday.
• The myriad of crimes of the Assad regime would have come to an end years ago, if not for the fact his regime is propped up from outside by direct intervention of Iran, and later Russia. What’s more, Tehran contributed substantially to the escalation of those crimes, as well as adding more to the list through its promotion of Shiite terrorist groups as part of pro-Assad fighting forces. Many of these groups have committed human rights abuses against Sunni populations in quantities rivaling those carried out by ISIS, aka Islamic State, against Shiites in Mosul, Iraq. And unlike ISIS, Iran-backed militants now are poised to stay in Iraq and Syria over the long term.
• If Macron wishes France to have the impact it deserves as a Great Power, he must be willing to align with Trump and confront the Islamic Republic of Iran directly. And they ought to position their countries to lead NATO in doing the same in Europe and the Middle East. If Trump is reluctant to lead NATO, Macron should be prepared to do so without Washington.
• This is not to say any Western power should be jostling for a new war in the Middle East, and this is certainly not what Washington has been advocating. On June 15, the U.S. Senate voted increased sanctions on the Iranian regime over its ballistic missile program, support for terrorism, and human rights violations. Friday’s meeting is a significant chance for both presidents to encourage renewed commitments to sanctions and diplomatic pressure, e.g., coercive diplomacy.
• Iran must be countered by exposing its vulnerability and pushing it from areas of foreign influence. Economic penalties against the Islamic Republic can serve a further purpose, namely encouragement of domestic forces that might facilitate a transfer of power out of the hands of the clerical regime into arms of democratic representatives of the Iranian people.
• The Macron-Trump meeting takes place two weeks after an annual international rally of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which also took place in Paris, attended by some 100,000 Iranian expats. I was at the rally conducting interviews for this article and heard NCRI President Maryam Rajavi emphasize the Iranian regime is much more vulnerable than is generally acknowledged, because of its overextension in the broader Middle East and hundreds of barely-reported protests taking place daily across the country.
• Sanctions on the Islamic Republic could be the thing finalizing conditions for regime change from within Iran and subsequent improvement in prospects for Syria and the region as a whole. Iran’s democratic opposition would refrain from subverting Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
• If Friday’s talks go well, the two presidents would be the ones most credited with setting this transformative chain of events in motion and accelerating the arc of history toward security and justice.
• Prof. Raymond Tanter (@AmericanCHR) served as a senior member on the Middle East Desk of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush administration, Personal Representative of the Secretary of Defense to international security and arms control talks in Europe, and is now Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan. Tanter is on the comprehensive list of conservative writers and columnists who appear in The Wall Street Journal, Townhall.com, National Review, The Weekly Standard, Human Events, The American Spectator, and now in Newsmax. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.