The Iran nuclear deal is a ticking time bomb -- this radical change will fix it

by Amir Basirihttp://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-a-ticking-time-bomb-this-radical-change-will-fix-it/article/2632958 | Aug 30, 2017, 1:21 PM

Last week, Iran's atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi warned that the Islamic Republic can ramp up its uranium enrichment level to 20 percent in a matter of days, a short step away from weapons-grade material. Many will dismiss Salehi's comments as an attempt to up the ante a day before U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley met with International Atomic Energy Agency officials in Vienna to discuss Iran's nuclear program.

But for two distinct reasons, there's no definitive way to make sure Salehi is bluffing: First, Iran's history in hiding its illicit nuclear program, and second, the porous agreement that is supposed to prevent Iran from obtaining atomic weapons.

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In 2015, the international community missed an exceptional opportunity to solve Iran's nuclear threat in a lasting manner. Instead, led by President Barack Obama, the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany achieved the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an accord that gave too many concessions to the Iranian regime, legitimized its uranium enrichment program, and only managed to extend its breakout time (the duration it would take for Tehran to produce a nuclear bomb) for a limited period.

Obama was under no illusion about JCPOA's effectiveness in curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions or other nefarious activities, including its terrorist ventures and gross human rights violations. In an interview with NPR, he acknowledged that by the time the accord expires, Iran's nuclear breakout time will have been significantly reduced. He also made it clear that he placed his bets on moderating Iran's behavior before the nuclear deal runs its course.

"I think that it's important for us to recognize that, if in fact they're engaged in international business, and there are foreign investors, and their economy becomes more integrated with the world economy, then in many ways it makes it harder for them to engage in behaviors that are contrary to international norms," Obama said in the interview.

To do good on his promise, Obama frontloaded the deal with economic concessions and facilitated foreign investment in Iran. By doing so, he also made sure that his European counterparts would have an enormous stake in preserving the deal as is.

Two years later, Tehran's expansionist ambitions in the region and its human rights abuses at home have grown worse. Moreover, the Iranian regime is exploiting the ambiguous text of the JCPOA to engage in provocative activities such as testing ballistic missiles.

Meanwhile, billions of dollars' worth of deals, preliminary agreements, and letters of intent have made European states loath to revisit the many flaws of the deal or to confront Iran for its evil deeds. In effect, the JCPOA, Obama's historic foreign policy achievement, has become the source of a worsening crisis. As the sand escapes the hourglass, the Middle East continues to spiral deeper into chaos and the Iranian regime inches toward becoming a nuclear-armed state.

Iran on the path of North Korea

By Keyvan Salami

Iran can enrich uranium within five days if the U.S. imposes more sanctions on Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's atomic agency head, warned this week. He claimed that Iran could achieve 20% enriched uranium in five days – a level at which it could then quickly be processed further into weapons-grade nuclear material.

Last week, Iranian president Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran could abandon its nuclear agreement with world powers "within hours" if the United States imposes any more new sanctions.

"If America wants to go back to the experience of imposing sanctions, Iran would certainly return in a short time – not a week or a month, but within hours - to conditions more advanced than before the start of negotiations," Rouhani told a session of parliament broadcast live on state television.

In response, U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley said Iran should not be allowed "to use the nuclear deal to hold the world hostage."

The Obama administration argued that there was no better alternative to its controversial nuclear agreement with Iran.  The argument was that the deal is good, as it potentially delays Iran's ambition to acquire nuclear weapons for at least ten years; it requires Tehran to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98 percent, disables the Arak facility from producing weapons-grade plutonium, reduces the number of centrifuges by two thirds, converts the Fordow facility into a research center, and allows for unprecedented intrusive inspections.

In addition, the deal would lengthen, from a few months to a year, the time frame in which Iran could reach the breakout point, providing the U.S. more time to act, even militarily.  Finally, the Obama administration suggested that a more prosperous and secure Iran might give up its drive to obtain nuclear weapons and may even become a constructive player in the community of nations.

Two years after the deal, the question is, will those claims still hold?  Did the deal "potentially" delay Iran's ambition to acquire nuclear weapons for at least ten years?  And did it make Iran "more prosperous and secure to give up its drive to obtain nuclear weapons and may even become a constructive player in the community of nations"?

The reality is that the deal not only has not curbed Iran's ability to obtain nuclear weapons, but also granted billions of dollars to Iran's malicious activities.  Two years after the deal, it is Rouhani who is confessing to this fact and saying Iran is capable of reaching the same point and even "conditions more advanced than before the start of negotiations" in a matter of few days.

"In an hour and a day, Iran could return to a more advanced [nuclear] level than at the beginning of the negotiations," Rouhani told a parliamentary session.

At the same session, a new bill was passed, a testament to the hollow claims of Iran's change of behavior as "a constructive player in the community of nations." 

In retaliation to new U.S. sanctions, with lawmakers chanting "Death to America," the state's military budget will be increased by almost $500 million, and $260 million will be pumped into the missile program alone.

A further $300 million will be added to the Quds Force's budget.  The bill charges the government to confront "threats, malicious, hegemonic and divisive activities of America in the region."

One might argue that their action is in reaction to new U.S. sanctions.  This might be true, yet it doesn't change the fact that Iran has maintained its capability of advancing its nuclear program, as Rouhani acknowledged.

The Iran apologists' take from Rouhani's threat is more concessions and to stop placing pressure on Iran.  A realistic approach, however, would be to take Rouhani's words seriously and put more pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program once and for all.

Iran is following the same path as North Korea, and the nuclear deal with Iran must not fool us into imagining that the Iranians have stopped their ambition of becoming a nuclear power.

For the mullahs in Iran, the atomic bomb is the only guarantor of survival.  That is why they will never relinquish their ambition of becoming a nuclear power.

The only means to stop Iran is to support the Iranian people and their organized opposition for a regime change

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/08/iran_on_the_path_of_north_korea_.html#ixzz4qebQflxM
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Iran nuclear deal anniversary marks a new global focus on the Islamic Republic

BY SIR DAVID AMESS MP, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 07/21/17 06:00 PM EDT

This month marks the second anniversary of the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council. The parties involved now have an opportunity to review the effectiveness of the deal and how well it serves their interests. Iran’s aggressive behavior sharpens the focus on whether the deal is going well.

 

It is becoming evident that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been a rather ineffectual agreement. The deal gave the Islamic Republic tens of billions of dollars worth of sanctions relief and asked for little or nothing in return.

As far as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can tell, Tehran is just about complying with the deal in terms of the requisite restrictions on its nuclear enrichment. However, the agreement did not permit comprehensive access for international inspections.

 

Iran’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi has publicly declared that the Islamic Republic is prepared to resume its nuclear enrichment at an even higher level than prior to the implementation of the JCPOA, if the U.S. or other Western powers increase sanctions due to issues such as ballistic missile testing.

 

The nuclear programme runs in parallel to the ballistic missile programme and should have been addressed by the JCPOA yet was dropped due to Iranian objections. The P5+1 instead resolved to address the ballistic missile issue through the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2231, which Iran has broken repeatedly.

 

One cannot however be surprised that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) favors expansion of Iran’s ballistic missile program. After all, it was the IRGC that carried out each of the ballistic missile tests that have violated the UNSC Resolution 2231.

 

The extension of the program has been endorsed by President Hassan Rouhani who is credited to have made the JCPOA possible on the Iranian side. Not long after securing election to a second term, Rouhani himself reiterated his government’s rejection of restrictions on the ballistic missile program, noting that “the Islamic nation has chosen to be strong.”

 

Last month, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) revealed information gathered from its intelligence network inside the Islamic Republic regarding recent escalations of missile activities. Forty two missile manufacturing, development and testing sites were identified throughout the country, all of them under the control of the IRGC. Shockingly, at least one of those sites was coordinating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, the institution that had been tasked with weaponization aspects of Tehran regime’s nuclear program.

 

It is crucial that the international community recognize the IRGC as a terrorist organization and blacklist it from all manner of commerce. Although much effort will be needed given the IRGC controls more than half of the Iranian gross domestic product, the benefits will be greater for the Iranian people and the wider world. A change of government in Tehran would be possible and a transition to a true democracy embodied by the leader of the NCRI Maryam Rajavi’s 10-point plan.

 

At the recent NCRI rally in Paris on July 1, Mrs. Rajavi appealed to the international community to condemn the IRGC as a terrorist organization and break its power. “The ruling regime is in disarray and paralyzed as never before ... Iranian society is simmering with discontent and the international community is finally getting closer to the reality that appeasing the ruling theocracy is misguided,” she said.

 

Unfortunately, a policy of appeasement was in motion when nuclear negotiations were concluded two years ago without addressing Tehran’s human rights violations and support for terrorism. The fall out of the JCPOA has become apparent and it is up to the world to renew its focus and take firm action against the IRGC and give freedom back to the people of Iran.

 

Sir David Amess, Conservative MP for Southend West in the UK House of Commons and co-chair of the British Committee for Iran Freedom (BCFIF), www.iran-freedom.org