Iran: A regime with no future

By: Shahriar Kia (Political analyst) 

The cabinet ministers of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani received a confidence vote recently in this regime’s parliament. 16 out of 17 ministers were approved after many reports indicated Rouhani reviewed the list extensively with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

However, an evaluation of this slate of names proves this cabinet will render no alternations and represents the very impasse the entire regime is facing. The next four years will, in fact, be worse than the previous.

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Foreign Affairs

Mohammad Javad Zarif has retained his post as foreign minister, considering his role in negotiating the nuclear agreement with the P5+1, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Despite Iran’s threats of relaunching its nuclear drive in the case of US President Donald Trump finding the regime in non-compliance with the JCPOA, Rouhani himself has gone the limits to explain the importance of this pact for Tehran.

“My first priority is to safeguard the JCPOA. The main role of our foreign minister is to stand alongside this deal,” he explained.

Although the deal is rightfully criticized for its loopholes and shortages, Iran understands very well how the current circumstances would be far worse.

While claiming the ability to kick-start 20% uranium enrichment in a matter of days, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi made a complete U-turn in emphasizing Tehran’s willingness to stick to the deal in the case of Washington deciding to leave come October.

Such desperate remarks from Iran are made despite the US increasing the heat with new comprehensive sanctions specifically targeting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Further measures are seen following the Vienna visit by Nikki Haley, the US Ambassador to the UN, demanding Iran open its military sites to inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Pressures escalated on Iran as international experts such as former IAEA deputy Olli Heinonen and former IAEA inspector David Albright, alongside three other specialists issued a report explaining how the UN nuclear watchdog lacks the necessary tools to probe possible JCPOA violations by Iran.

These experts specifically referred to the highly controversial Parchin military complex located 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran. Iran only agreed to provide samples extracted by its own experts and continues to refuse access to foreign individuals.

Defense

The new Iranian defense minister is Amir Hatami. Rumors indicate Rouhani and Khamenei have chosen this member of Iran’s classic army due to their fear the IRGC being blacklisted as a terrorist entity.

It is worth noting, however, that Hatami joined the IRGC Basij paramilitary force at the age of 13 and has announced his utter loyalty to the IRGC Quds Force and its ringleader, Qassem Suleimani.

The solution Hatami provides to confront the regime’s slate of crises is focused mainly on developing Iran’s ballistic missile program.

“During this period we will expand our missile capabilities, especially ballistic and cruise missiles,” he explained recently.

This is another indication of a policy based on developing missile power, dispatching IRGC and Basij members abroad, and fueling foreign wars. This is a continuation of Tehran’s four-decade long policy of spilling its own turmoil abroad through lethal meddling.

Hatami also enjoys Rouhani’s complete blessing in providing full support for the IRGC.

“He is fully informed of the Defense Ministry and its agenda. My particular request is for an increase in developing particular weapons, especially missiles, considering their importance,” Rouhani explained in recent remarks.

Again, more of the same.

Economics

Iran’s regime is heavily dependent on oil exports revenues. Bijan Namdar Zangeneh has been called upon to continue his role as oil minister, remaining the longest running individual in this post.

A minister for 26 years there are questions over any meaningful development and changes for the better in the country’s oil and gas sector. Iran is now riddled with mismanaged oil wells, uncontrolled extractions and contracts with foreign companies that literally sell-off the Iranian people’s interests.

According to Rouhani’s own remarks, this regime is in desperate need of $200 billion of foreign investment for its oil and gas industry. Two years into the JCPOA, Iran has received only $12 billion in such deals.

The deal signed with France’s Total, valued at $4.8 billion, comes with numerous strings attached and is under the continued risk of US sanctions.

What needs comprehension is the fact that investing in Iran is an economic issue at a first glance, with countless political reservations. No foreign investor is willing to risk money in a country ruled by a regime known for its ongoing warmongering, exporting terrorism, and provoking confrontations throughout the Middle East and across the globe, such as its nuclear/ballistic missile collaboration with North Korea.

Conclusion

All those having their fingers crossed in Rouhani, being provided a second term by Khamenei, are already being disappointed. July witnessed over 100 executions and over 50 others have been sent to the gallows in August. This includes a 20-year-old man arrested at the age of 15 for his alleged crime. Another recent case involved a hanging on August 28th in a prison west of Tehran.

All foreign correspondents are realizing no change is foreseeable from within this regime. The main message of Rouhani’s new cabinet is this regime’s lack of any capacity for any meaningful modification or amendment.

Any entity lacking the ability to change and adapt has no future.

Understanding IRGC’s long-term goals in Iraq

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By:Hamid Bahrami

“I announce from here the end and failur

e and the collapse of the terrorist state of falsehood and terrorism which the terrorist Da’esh (ISIS) announced from Mosul,” the Iraqi Prime Minister declared on state television recently.

Following a three-year long blitz, Iraqi forces with the support of the international coalition, have now defeated ISIS in Mosul, despite all challenges and sectarian disputes.

But the defeat of ISIS has created a vacuum and there are some hard questions about Shi’ite militias such as the People Mobilization Units (PMU) that must be answered. This is particularly important because the PMU was established because of the sectarian divisions in Iraq.

But what role will the PMU play in the future of Iraq? Who will control and command the PMU? It is a known fact that some Shi’ite militant groups in Iraq – such as the Kata’ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq – are supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Thus, it is not surprising that these militias pursue IRGC’s goals and depend on Tehran for their financial and military supplies. It is worth pointing out that a few days ago, the commander of IRGC’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, said that the IRGC “had been working around the clock to arm the PMU” after its establishment.

This makes them under command of the IRGC’s Quds Force. Apart from financial affiliation and weapons, these groups have indicated that they believe in and are loyal to the Iranian regime’s ideology of Khomeinism who was the flagbearer of “the path to Quds(Jerusalem) goes through Karbala”.

In 2014, a Reuters report said that “Asaib and Kata’ib Hezbollah, who have sent fighters to Syria to defend Shii’te shrines ... recognize Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei as their spiritual leader.”

Based on the realities on the ground, it is no exaggeration that the regime in Tehran has the last word in Iraq and the IRGC controls some part of the current Iraqi government

Hamid Bahrami

Direct dependence on Tehran

Despite this direct dependence on Tehran, the PMU has been incorporated in Iraq’s armed forces. Muqtada al-Sadr, an influential Shii’te cleric who Lead one of the PMU's groups, expressed his concern with this development in Iraq in an interview and said, “I can see that Iraq will be under the control of militia groups.”

He then demanded that security should be exclusively under the control of Iraqi army. The Iranian regime has long sought to create a safe corridor from Iran to Lebanon. Consequently, the existence of a domestic paramilitary force parallel to the traditional army in Iraq is crucial for the IRGC and Tehran’s plan for future of that country.

Due to the growing demand in the US Congress and the White House contemplating to designate the entire IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the Iranian authorities, need a heavily-armed paramilitary force, such as the PMU, to keep the corridor safe and to achieve their goals in Iraq.

This is because the successful terror designation of the IRGC will limit the Iraqi government’s ability to cooperate and provide facilities to the Iranian regime. Hence at this stage after the defeat of ISIS, it is only the regime in Tehran who will profit and rip the benefits of the PMU’s existence.

In addition, the existence of a parallel paramilitary force with an extreme Shi’ite ideology will undermine the country’s constitution, as this militia will follow the politicians who support it rather than the country’s constitution or the government.

Replicating Hezbollah

In this case, the Iranian regime is trying to replicate its creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and strives to establish a similarly trustworthy paramilitary force in Iraq in order to take control and dominate the Iraqi politics in favor of its agenda.

It is true that there are disagreements among the militia groups, which form the PMU about the destructive and destabilizing actions of the IRGC. But the Iranian regime will try to bribe or eliminate any influential clerics or opposition, if this proves to be necessary.

Another reason for the Iranian regime increasing its intervention in Iraq today is the upcoming Iraqi elections. If the Islamic Dawa Party with the former Iranian-backed PM, Nouri al-Maliki, loses that elections to some other politicians like the progressive Shi’ite voice Ayad Allawi, the IRGC’s corridor will be threatened.

Unchallenged, the commander of IRGC’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani will use the PMU to tilt the upcoming elections in Iraq to Tehran’s favor and secure the outcome that the regime in Iran prefers.

The solution

So, what is the solution to prevent a new sectarian war in Iraq? As long as the Iranian regime and its proxies are allowed to continue their destructive role in Iraq, Iraqi people will never see peace.

Based on the realities on the ground, it is no exaggeration that the regime in Tehran has the last word in Iraq and the IRGC controls some part of the current Iraqi government.

However, the Iraqi government must now dissolve and dismantle the PMU, effectively, cutting off IRGC’s hand in Iraq. This is particularly important following the defeat of ISIS in Iraq.

It also needs to reconstruct the Iraqi army based on national interests and to run an independent foreign policy. The West and the Arab countries should push the Iraqi government towards this direction otherwise Iraq will be offered to the regime in Tehran in a silver plate.
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Freelance journalist Hamid Bahrami has served as political prisoner in Iran. He is a human rights and political activist living in Glasgow, Scotland. His works covers Iran’s destructive actions in the Middle East and social crackdown in Iran. He tweets at @HaBahrami & blogs at analyzecom.

Iran regime change is in the making

By Heshmat Alavi

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stressed in a recent Congressional hearing that the U.S. should literally “work towards support of those elements inside Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government,” signaling the overhaul needed in Washington’s Iran policy.

From Tehran’s point of view this was, of course, a completely unpleasant surprise, as the Trump administration unexpectedly placed its weight behind those seeking true and democratic change.

Considering escalating public dissent and growing rifts in Iran’s senior hierarchy, the international community should brace for a major impact in developments centered on Iran.

Before and after the May 19th presidential “election,” Iran’s powder keg society witnessed a major outbreak of protests, especially by investors placing their savings in institutions linked to the state and/or the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

The vast network associated with the Iranian opposition People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) has for a year now focused its widespread effort inside the country on raising awareness, especially amongst the younger generation, about the true nature of this regime’s 38-year report card.

One very troubling dossier was the summer 1988 massacre of over 30,000 political prisoners in dozens of prisons throughout Iran. Perpetrators of that horrendous purging enjoy high rank in today’s regime. Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi is ironically the minister of justice in President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet.

Conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, known to be the favored candidate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the May race, along with being groomed to succeed the ill Khamenei in the regime’s ultimate leadership post. Both Pour-Mohammadi and Raisi were leading members of the four-man “Death Commission” presiding over the mass executions.

Activities and revelations made by the PMOI/MEK network inside Iran exposed those involved in the 1988 massacre. This turn of events placed Khamenei before a major decision of enforcing his candidate as president and risking a major uprising even more powerful than that of 2009, or succumb to another term of Rouhani as his regime’s president.

Rest assured that despite promising to realize freedoms, Rouhani in his second term neither bears the intention nor will to realize anything even remotely similar to reforms.

Parallel to these developments are unprecedented divides amongst senior officials in Tehran. On a number of occasions Khamenei and his faction have indirectly issued threats against Rouhani, even comparing his fate to that of the Iranian regime’s first president back in the 1980s, who was impeached.

When IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani lashed out at those targeting the Guards, it was considered by many to be aimed at Rouhani.

“In the Islamic Republic, we’re all responsible towards martyrs, society, religion and our country. The biggest betrayal is to cast doubt toward the foundations of this system… none today must weaken the corps,” he said recently.

This is most probably a reference to Rouhani’s recent remarks against the IRGC through the elections process and after presidential campaign.

This dangerous dispute will also leave Khamenei incapable of grooming any successor to his throne or managing a smooth transitional process, set to become deadly for the mullahs’ already unclear future.

Couple all these dilemmas on Khamenei’s table with the growing turmoil in the Middle East as ISIS’ days are numbered. Attention among the international community is focusing on post-ISIS circumstances and the Trump administration is receiving further calls to weigh options blacklisting the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, and ultimately seeking regime change through supporting the Iranian opposition.

“Iran must be free. The dictatorship must be destroyed. Containment is appeasement, and appeasement is surrender. The only practical goal is to support a movement to free Iran. Any other goal will leave a dictatorship finding ways to get around any agreement and to lie about everything,” said Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, at a recent Iranian opposition rally near Paris. Gingrich is known for his very close relations with President Trump.

Such an initiative also enjoys vast regional support, voiced also recently by a prominent Saudi figure.

“The Iranian people are the first victims of [the mullahs’] dictatorship,” said former Saudi intelligence chief Turki Faisal. “Your effort in challenging this regime is legitimate and your resistance for the liberation of the Iranian people of all ethnicities, including Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, Turks and Fars of the mullahs’ evil, as [Iranian opposition leader Maryam] Rajavi said, is a legitimate struggle.”

Even a brief glance at ongoing developments emerging domestically and abroad for Iran, provides convincing evidence that regime change is absolutely in the making in Tehran.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/07/iran_regime_change_is_in_the_making.html#ixzz4mkAKI51d
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