Iran's Future, In Its Own Words

On the very sensitive subject of how Iran plans to confront ongoing protests, described by some as an uprising, all the while attempting to resolve the very issues engulfing the ruling regime, there are critical concerns raising from various voices within.

And considering U.S. President Donald Trump's powerful State of the Union message, underscoring "America stands with the people of Iran in their courageous struggle for freedom," the stakes at hand in the months ahead for Tehran are extremely high.

Iran's state-linked media are a good source, shedding significant and noteworthy light on the seemingly obscure nature of the Iranian regime.

The common tone heard in all such messages is hopelessness. Those loyal to the faction of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei see the solution in sacking the regime's president, Hassan Rouhani.

Arguments from the other side of the aisle in Tehran's politics rely on warning the Khamenei camp that such a scenario will not end the regime's escalating quandaries. This is only the beginning and there is no stopping this train, adding the entirety of this regime is in the crosshairs.

There are those who believe dark days await those sitting on the throne in Tehran, speaking of future uprising waves. Providing no solutions, their words can mean nothing but succumbing to an inevitable downfall.

"Those who have continuously spread despair and anxiety through their platforms in state TV/radio and Friday prayers (in reference to the Khamenei camp) seek to portray Rouhani as incompetent. They issue and chant slogans of 'Death to Rouhani,' failing to answer the inescapable question of who after Rouhani. The answer is obvious: surpassing Rouhani means overcoming the government, reaching the very principle of our state, and finally surpassing the Islamic republic itself," according to the Tadbir24 website, known for its affiliation to the Rouhani camp.

Interesting is how this piece considers Rouhani a synonym of the ruling state, or at least the velayat-e faqih regime's last chance of survival, warning surpassing Rouhani is tantamount to the end of the clerical rule altogether.

Protesters in the streets, however, are crystal clear in their intentions and how they view the overall regime apparatus. Chanting "Death to Rouhani," "Death to Khamenei," and most interestingly, "Reformists, principalists, end of story," the Iranian people are demanding sweeping changes, accepting nothing short of regime change. This ends Iran's scheme of portraying a system established on two parties of conservatives and reformists.

Iran: The Lives of the Political Prisoners on Hunger Strike in Danger

The Iranian Resistance expresses grave concern over the health and security of political prisoners on hunger strike in solitary confinement of ward 4 in Gohardasht Prison of Karaj, west of Tehran. All international human rights organizations, especially the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and the Special Rapporteur of Human Rights in Iran, Special Rapporteur on Torture are called upon to take urgent action to save the lives of these political prisoners.

Misters Abolqassem Fouladvand, Hassan Sadeghi, Saeed Masouri, Reza Akbari Monfared, Jafar Eqdami, Amir Qaziyan, Khaled Heradani, Zaniyar and Loqman Moradi who are in solitary confinement. A number of other ward 4 prisoners, including Misters Mohammad Banazadeh Amir Khizi, Pirouz Mansouri, Majid Assadi and Payam Shakiba are amongst the inmates who are also on hunger strike protesting repressive measures against ward 4 political prisoners in Gohardasht Prison. The authorities have banned these political prisoners from any family visits and placed them under pressures to end their hunger strikes.

The protesting political prisoners are amongst the inmates of hall 12 of ward 4 in Gohardasht Prison who were attacked on Sunday, July 30, insulted and beaten by prison guards, and forcefully transferred to hall 10 of this ward (NCRI Statement – August 1). Prison authorities have deprived these political prisoners of minimum hygiene products and decent clothing.

The religious fascism ruling Iran exerts its authority through executions, torture and detentions. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, with his “moderate” mask, are two sides of this medieval regime’s coin.

Senior Iranian regime officials must be placed before justice for their continuous and increasing crimes against the Iranian people. Any relation with Tehran must hinge on the mullahs’ improving the disastrous human rights situation and releasing all political prisoners without any preconditions.

Secretariat of the National Council of Resistance of Iran

Not necessary to put war back on the table; Iran is at war

Hamid Bahrami

Two years have passed since the signing of the ineffective nuclear agreement between world powers and Tehran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

For those who are familiar with the theocracy in Iran, it is a known fact that all foreign policy in Iran are decided by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. This is even true in the case of the highly promoted nuclear deal. It is worth noting that before and during the negotiations, Khamenei, said that Oman had a key role in breaking the ice between Iran and the US.

Thus, it is naive to think that the new president, Hassan Rouhani, was the one who changed the 10-year-long stalemate. Iran has an abundance of oil, gas and others natural resources, hence, using nuclear energy is both expensive and controversial.

Independent experts acknowledge that Iran’s goal of maintaining a nuclear program is to produce nuclear weapon. However, Iran has consistently refused these views and claims that its program is of a peaceful nature.

Regional hegemony

It is worth pointing out that having a nuclear warhead will guarantee Iran’s regional hegemony. Therefore, Iran has consistently tried to achieve it. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former Iranian president and one of the pillars of the Islamic Republic who died last year, said that Iran was trying to make nuclear bomb.

“When we first began, we were at war and we sought to have that possibility for the day that the enemy might use a nuclear weapon”, he said in an interview. Consequently, the regime in Tehran sought nuclear weapons in order to tilt the balance of power in the region in its favor.

The West imposed comprehensive sanctions against Iran targeting its finance sector and its selling of oil. These intelligent punitive measures exacerbated the Iranian economy that already suffered greatly from decades of economic mismanagement and widespread corruption, to the point of destruction, according to statistics from Iran’s own Central bank. The inflation was over 30 percent in 2013.

Iranian authorities confess that the greatest threat to theocracy is not a foreign enemy, like the US, but popular protests, especially by the disenfranchised poor people and youth

irHamid Bahrami

Economic poverty put immense pressure on the Iranian middle class, the Iranian government even tried to redefine the base basket of food (government subsidies to the Iranian middle class) to control the inflation. Rouhani's government even started to distribute especial food baskets. The regime’s National Security Council warned about hungry rebellion. Salaries of labors was unpaid and economic deadlock brought the government to its knees.

Although, Iran’s goal of making nuclear weapon was in reach and Tehran increased its intervention in the region, the economic crisis threatened the theocracy's very existence. Consequently, the Supreme Leader ordered his officials to start the negotiation with the West. This was president Obama giving artificial respiration to Tehran.

After the agreement

The sanctions aimed at stopping Iran’s nuclear program. According to the JCPOA, Iran must redesign and rebuild its heavy-water reactor in Arak. It means that Iran’s abilities to develop and produce nuclear weapon is intensively limited for years. Some experts, diplomats and government officials argue that the sanctions achieved their goal.

But at that time, the JCPOA did not include the rest of Iran’s threatening and destabilizing activities such as its ballistic missile program, dispatch of tens of thousands of militias and paramilitary forces to Syria. The JCPOA did neither addressed the appalling human rights situation in Iran.

Iran and violation of agreement

A conditional approval was published by the Supreme Leader Khamenei with regard to Tehran agreeing to the JCPOA. The document contained several conditions.

One of the conditions was about new sanctions after signing of the agreement, it said that “Any sanctions against Iran at every level and on any pretext, including terrorism and human rights violations, by any one of the countries participating in the negotiations will constitute a violation of the JCPOA, and a reason for Iran to stop executing the agreement.”

Considering that US has imposed several sanctions on Iran after the deal, one must ask the following question, why has Iran not stopped executing the agreement?

The Iranian regime is besieged by extensive social discontent. Over 10 millions are unemployed and many ordinary Iranians are forced to live a life below poverty-line.

Not a foreign enemy

Indeed, Iranian authorities confess that the greatest threat to theocracy is not a foreign enemy, like the US, but popular protests and anti-regime demonstrations, especially by the disenfranchised poor people and youth, breaking the current status quo.

The reality is that the regime has always been at war with the young generation over individual liberties and social freedoms, which challenged the foundation of the regime’s theocracy. That is why Iran’s answer to new US sanctions has been merely rhetoric.

Due to the theocracy’s weak position in the society and its faltering economy, if Tehran abandons the nuclear agreement, all sanctions will be re-imposed. That will led to an economic and political collapse of the ruling theocracy.

Consequently, if president Trump orders to renegotiate the JCPOA, or impose new effective sanctions such as designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, Iran is not able to play its enrichment card.

These were the reasons sanctions forced the Iranian regime to come back to the negotiation table, and it will do it again.
______________________
Freelance journalist Hamid Bahrami has served as political prisoner in Iran. He is a human rights and political activist living in Glasgow, Scotland. His works covers Iran’s destructive actions in the Middle East and social crackdown in Iran. He tweets at @HaBahrami & blogs at analyzecom.

MEK: The Opposition the Iranian Regime Wants to Silence

By Mahmoud Hakamian

For the Iranian regime, staying power means oppressing all voices that challenge their rule, particularly the human rights abuses and strict laws on everything from who you can socialize with to how you dress in public. Yet, one group has been the main focus of the regime’s efforts to suppress and undermine their voice in support of a free Iran. That group is the MEK.

When the MEK was removed from the U.S. list of terrorist groups, Iranian regime House Speaker Ali Larijni said during his speech on June 23, “Now it’s you (the United States) who are sponsor of terrorism and even mother of terrorism, yet you accuse the Iranian regime of sponsoring terrorism. Your accusations are shameful…Today, the Americans removed the MEK from their list of terrorist groups.”

News agencies, including the Fars agency under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have revealed the concerns of the regime over what they see as a dangerous turn of events, now that Camp Liberty’s residents have been relocated to Europe. On June 20, Fars reported that the move was a reminder of (MEK’s) declaring war against the regime.

After adding a few more claims against the MEK, the article went on to reveal the regime’s fear of another uprising, such as those that occurred in July 1999 and 2009. “The group’s (MEK’s) increased activities and their efforts for creating chaos and making a creeping coup was so intense over a period of time that many thought it was over for the regime on July 9, 1999. Their coordination was even further revealed during the 2009 uprising,” said the Fars news agency.

The press in Iran is controlled by the regime and the IRGC, so it is a source of frustration that thanks to satellite television, the opposition is able to expose the regime’s activities. These include the exposing of insecure, bankrupt institutions belonging to state entities, such as the IRGC, a move aimed at informing the Iranian people.

“Some satellite channels linked to MEK have released a clip showing that Samen institution has gone bankrupt, scaring investors into rushing to Samen Bank branches,” said a regime official.

But this is nothing to the latest efforts of various families to receive justice for their loved ones killed in the 1988 massacreMEK: The Opposition the Iranian Regime Wants to Silence of political prisoners. Fearing the spread of this movement, regime leader Ali Khamenei has spoken out against this movement, which focuses on justice for those MEK members executed.

According to Khamenei, “We’ve recently been hearing some tribunes attacking regime’s records during the 80’s. I recommend those who are thoughtful not to mistake executioners for martyrs when judging the 80s events. Iranian people were oppressed at the time. Terrorists, MEK, their supporters and those who raised them and constantly blew them persecuted the Iranian people. They did bad things. The Iranian people were forced to take a defensive position.”

By Iranian people, Khamenei meant nothing more than his own ruling class of mullahs. The fact is that the 80s is the decade when 30,000 political prisoners were massacred, and the decade when pregnant women, 13-year-old girls, and 70-year-old mothers were part of those who were killed.

Following Khamenei’s speech, a rush of state-run media and other outlets launched a wave of attack and false accusations against the MEK, a move which was even further escalated a few days later following Khamenei’s fire-at-will order. These supporters of the Iranian regime called MEK the killers and that the order from Khomeini was meant to protect the country by killing anyone, including MEK members and supporters, who still stood their ground and supported the MEK.

What it boiled down to was anyone considered pro-MEK was a threat to the regime, and this was true even if they did nothing against the regime but support an alternative set of political ideals. Efforts to portray the MEK and political prisoners massacred during the 80s as executioners were significantly increased in Friday prayer events and the regime’s media following the ISIS attacks in Tehran.

While acknowledging the massacre of MEK members in 1988, Assadollah Imani said in Shiraz Friday prayer show, “if MEK had not been repressed in 1988, you were faced with such plights everyday over the past 20 years. Khomeini knew well how to deal with MEK.”

The attacks on the MEK in the media aren’t limited to just the leaders and supporters of the MEK, but are also showing the cracks within the factors of the regime itself. In Mashhad, the city’s Friday Prayer Imam Alamolhoda attacked Rouhani for the increased popularity of the MEK and the movement seeking justice for victims of the 1988 massacre.

“Today, we are faced with such a problem. To gain power and push away their rivals, they defend (MEK) so much that the supreme leader is forced to shout not to mistake executioner for martyr. Those claiming to run the regime are actually defending the MEK,” said Alamolhoda.

Others argue that the release of the Hassanali Montazeri audio tape detailing the roles of the death commissions in the 1988 massacre has benefited those groups who would like to see the end of the regime’s repressive fundamentalism.

“The audio file was released right when counter-revolutionary elements and media had prepared their same old programs against the Iranian regime to mark the anniversary of the execution of MEK members. Besides, MEK was holding a gathering in Paris at the time,” said the Judiciary’s Mizan news agency.

The publication of an audio recording of Mr. Montazeri’s meeting with four officials of the regime responsible for the 1988 massacre has sent shock waves throughout the regime.

That gathering is being held again in Paris on July 1. During this gathering, the opposition will lay out their case for a Free Iran, one that doesn’t include the fundamentalism and repression of the regime. As part of this event, speakers from various leadership bodies in the international community will show their support for the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a coalition of opposition movements determined to create a peaceful regime change.

The above-mentioned facts are just a handful of the whole sack of the weight, popularity, and effect of the MEK in today’s Iran. Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the NCRI, has called for the formation of the movement to obtain justice for the victims of the 1988 massacre.

“This is a very important document attesting to several basic realities. First, the audio clip contains explicit confessions by those responsible for the massacre regarding their participation in an ongoing genocide. It shows that Khomeini and his entourage contravened even their own procedures and routines and were directly involved in the massacre. It also indicates that the religious tyranny solidified the foundations of the next repugnant Velayat-e-Faqih (absolute clerical rule) as a result of this genocide,” said Rajavi.

The rise of Khamenei was concocted during the massacre of political prisoners, which was orchestrated by the highest officials at the time, namely Ali Khamenei, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ahmad Khomeini.

Another point made by Mr. Montazeri is that Khomeini had been deliberating about the massacre starting three or four years before it actually occurred and as his son repeatedly stated, he had decided to execute all “the Mojahedin, including those who read their newspaper, to those who read the magazines, and those who read flyers.”

Khomeini feared the MEK’s deep roots in Iranian society and the movement’s strength and determination. In a letter, which he wrote a few months later to Montazeri, Khomeini explained the reason for the latter’s ouster as heir to the supreme leader, “It has now become clear that after me, you will give up this country and the dear Islamic revolution of Iran’s Muslim nation to liberals and through them to the (Mojahedin).”

The reality is that the increasing popularity of the MEK is seen by the regime as a dangerous development. All the efforts of the mullahs have been focused on pretending the events of the 1980s never happened, minimizing the crimes, or even attributing them to the MEK itself. This strategy was formulated by Khomeini himself and has continued in the decades since.

The NCRI and their supporters have called on the international community to support the people of Iran in their demand for the prosecution of the Iranian regime’s leaders. As human rights advocates and international bodies have continued to demonstrate Iran’s record of repression, this movement by the opposition to obtain justice and freedom for this country includes changing the direction of Iran’s influence in the Middle East as well. The United Nations and the UN Security Council must adopt political and legal arrangements for the international prosecution of leaders of this regime on the charge of committing crimes against humanity.

A formal international condemnation of the 1988 massacre is a necessary step towards ending all the mass executions within Iran, an episode that was recently repeated in the concurrent execution of 25 Sunni prisoners. Finally, the movement to obtain justice is a relentless campaign by our compatriots and all supporters of the Iranian Resistance for the international prosecution of Khamenei and other regime leaders for committing genocide and crimes against humanity.

Iran: Young woman arrested for wearing a skirt

Women's News

Iran: Young woman arrested for wearing a skirt

A young Iranian woman shared a post and a photo in the social networks, reporting that she had been arrested for wearing a blouse and skirt. In this illuminating post, she recounts what happened to her and other women arrested and detained for being improperly veiled. Following is the text of her post:

They told me it's forbidden to wear a blouse and skirt.

It was the first time I was hearing something like this. I never thought the situation in the country was so bad that wearing a skirt could be counted as a crime.

And it was not just me. Everyone wearing short manteaux which was above the knees or was open in the front, and everyone wearing pants just 90-cms in length, were arrested. They were arresting people en masse. Then, when the van was filled, the captain said, 'That's enough. Let's go!'

All the girls were weeping. They were so scared.

When we arrived at the police station, their treatment became really rough. They made threats to send some of us to (the infamous) Vozara (detention center).[1] They had us fill a questionaire and took our photos. Then they made us sign a pledge. And finally, they said (your families) should bring you clothes and covering. We can let you go only after we check and OK them.

I told the agent, "Although compulsory Hijab is wrong in the first place, what was wrong with my clothes? Is it a crime to wear a blouse and a skirt? Where is this written?"

He told me, "The color of your hair is like those who worship Satan. Your covering belongs to Israel. Then if you fall down and trip over, your skirt flies up. Then what are you going to do? You have ruined our lives!!"

I started laughing so hard that all the girls who were crying started to laugh loud, too. But I couldn't resist. I had promised Tahoora (name of a person) that nothing would happen to me again.

We were humiliated so much. This wasn't any feminist tweet or an argument over literature. This was the "reality" going on. The reality that showed the real society was something else.

There I learned that I must get out of the cyber space and all the hot talks in it. Education and protests must be taken to the streets. When security forces tell me that it is a crime to wear a blouse and skirt, I must not fear and I must punch them in the mouth. It's time for everyone to take to the streets and demand that violence against women be stopped.

In the end, I have a question for Rouhani, Molaverdi[2] and other officials who speak of freedoms. Is it a national security crime to wear a blouse and a skirt?

 [1] Vozara is the name of an infamous detention center located on a Tehran street with the same name, where women are taken to for improper veiling but are tranferred from there to other unknown locations to be tortured and sexually assaulted.

[2] Shahindokht Molaverdi is Rouhani's deputy in women and family affairs

Iran nuclear deal anniversary marks a new global focus on the Islamic Republic

BY SIR DAVID AMESS MP, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 07/21/17 06:00 PM EDT

This month marks the second anniversary of the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council. The parties involved now have an opportunity to review the effectiveness of the deal and how well it serves their interests. Iran’s aggressive behavior sharpens the focus on whether the deal is going well.

 

It is becoming evident that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been a rather ineffectual agreement. The deal gave the Islamic Republic tens of billions of dollars worth of sanctions relief and asked for little or nothing in return.

As far as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can tell, Tehran is just about complying with the deal in terms of the requisite restrictions on its nuclear enrichment. However, the agreement did not permit comprehensive access for international inspections.

 

Iran’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi has publicly declared that the Islamic Republic is prepared to resume its nuclear enrichment at an even higher level than prior to the implementation of the JCPOA, if the U.S. or other Western powers increase sanctions due to issues such as ballistic missile testing.

 

The nuclear programme runs in parallel to the ballistic missile programme and should have been addressed by the JCPOA yet was dropped due to Iranian objections. The P5+1 instead resolved to address the ballistic missile issue through the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2231, which Iran has broken repeatedly.

 

One cannot however be surprised that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) favors expansion of Iran’s ballistic missile program. After all, it was the IRGC that carried out each of the ballistic missile tests that have violated the UNSC Resolution 2231.

 

The extension of the program has been endorsed by President Hassan Rouhani who is credited to have made the JCPOA possible on the Iranian side. Not long after securing election to a second term, Rouhani himself reiterated his government’s rejection of restrictions on the ballistic missile program, noting that “the Islamic nation has chosen to be strong.”

 

Last month, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) revealed information gathered from its intelligence network inside the Islamic Republic regarding recent escalations of missile activities. Forty two missile manufacturing, development and testing sites were identified throughout the country, all of them under the control of the IRGC. Shockingly, at least one of those sites was coordinating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, the institution that had been tasked with weaponization aspects of Tehran regime’s nuclear program.

 

It is crucial that the international community recognize the IRGC as a terrorist organization and blacklist it from all manner of commerce. Although much effort will be needed given the IRGC controls more than half of the Iranian gross domestic product, the benefits will be greater for the Iranian people and the wider world. A change of government in Tehran would be possible and a transition to a true democracy embodied by the leader of the NCRI Maryam Rajavi’s 10-point plan.

 

At the recent NCRI rally in Paris on July 1, Mrs. Rajavi appealed to the international community to condemn the IRGC as a terrorist organization and break its power. “The ruling regime is in disarray and paralyzed as never before ... Iranian society is simmering with discontent and the international community is finally getting closer to the reality that appeasing the ruling theocracy is misguided,” she said.

 

Unfortunately, a policy of appeasement was in motion when nuclear negotiations were concluded two years ago without addressing Tehran’s human rights violations and support for terrorism. The fall out of the JCPOA has become apparent and it is up to the world to renew its focus and take firm action against the IRGC and give freedom back to the people of Iran.

 

Sir David Amess, Conservative MP for Southend West in the UK House of Commons and co-chair of the British Committee for Iran Freedom (BCFIF), www.iran-freedom.org

Rouhani’s Reelection Solves Nothing

Ayatollah Khamenei's theocratic regime is crumbling, and the recent reelection of Hassan Rouhani serves only to hasten its decline, argues Ali Safavi.

JUNE 21, 2017

Usually, the hope is that after an election a country can move forward, the new leader’s agenda bolstered by a popular mandate. That is not the case with Iran. Hassan Rouhani’s second term as president was far from a win for Iran’s economy, Iran’s international standing, and certainly not for Iran’s people.

In the words of the only opposition posing an existential threat to the regime, the strong-arm tactics demonstrated by the regime during the election process further divided a regime already gravely weakened by an internal power struggle. Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, foresees Rouhani’s second term as serving only to aggravate that power struggle, bringing about a crisis at the leadership level of the ruling theocracy.

In Rajavi’s view, given the current circumstances at home and abroad, it is crucial for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to consolidate if he is to maintain his regime’s balance and weather out the near-daily crises that Iran faces. Khameni’s failure to manipulate the election so as to make usher Ebrahimi Raisi, his chosen candidate, into the presidential palace was a major defeat which does not bode well for his regime’s longevity.

Many believe Raisi’s “coronation” was a non-starter because his candidacy trained a spotlight on the 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners. Raisi sat on the “Death Commission” that administrated the executions. That horrific national wound never healed — instead, it erupted into public outrage, and regime insiders’ fear of the mounting demand for justice caused many clerics, even powerful figures within Khamenei’s faction, to distance themselves from Raisi.

ROUHANI’S EMPTY PROMISES WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE INFIGHTING WITHIN THE REGIME — ALREADY AGGRAVATED BY THE CAMPAIGN — AND FALL FLAT IN THE FACE OF IRANIANS’ EXPECTATIONS AND DEMANDS

Despite their best efforts to maintain a modicum of discipline, a constant undercurrent of backbiting and badmouthing served only to highlight the role of both factions of the regime in the 1988 executions and other atrocities. In one swipe at his opponent during the election race, Rouhani declared that the only thing the ruling faction had known how to do for the past 38 years was “how to execute and imprison people.” Less than a month after the election 18 people were hanged in various cities in Iran.

The internal strife reflects failure of velayat-e faqih (absolute rule of the clergy) in resolving the most pressing social problems and growing discontent. Based on the admissions of the hand-picked candidates, the clerical regime has the support of only four percent of the population. Factions within the regime, including the one affiliated with Rouhani, are all competing against each other to gain the upper hand — not just in ruling but in embezzlement and plunder.

The slogan, “No to the charlatan, no to the executioner; my vote is [for] regime change” was heard across the country.  That prompted Khamenei’s decision to wrap up the whole election process in the first round, and Raisi was pushed to the sidelines. However incensed at being thwarted he might have been, Khamenei was not willing to risk widespread unrest during a second round, potentially sparking an uprising of disaffected youths like that which threatened to topple the ruling regime in 2009.

So Iran got Rouhani for a second term. For critics of Iran, there will be more of the same: human rights abuses, regional meddling, and export of terrorism — and expect euphoria among diehard Iran apologists inside the Beltway, who have set the bar very low when it comes to the expectations of the Iranian people.

Rouhani is a known commodity. In his first term, the Iranian people endured a harsh crackdown marked by a spike in executions unprecedented in a quarter century, and economic misery; the region saw increasing interference, violence and conflict. Rouhani promised that the sanctions relief and infusion of cash from the nuclear deal would bring economic relief for ordinary citizens; it hasn’t yet, and Trump’s harsh stance threatens to set Washington’s relationship with Tehran back decades. Sanctions were never the real cause of Iran’s economic collapse, though, and sanctions relief did not relieve Iran’s economy. As for the cash, it was spent to fuel wars in the region and increase the budget of the military/security apparatus.

Rouhani’s empty promises will only exacerbate the infighting within the regime — already aggravated by the campaign — and fall flat in the face of Iranians’ expectations and demands. Mandate or no, he will fall short of altering the foundations, structure and behavior of the regime.

For the past 38 years, Rouhani has proven his allegiance to the Supreme Leader while serving at the highest levels of the regime’s security and military apparatuses.  Portraying him as a moderate who will set Iran on a new path is futile. As Rajavi pointed out, Iran’s problems will not be solved unless and until their root cause — the theocratic regime — is ousted by the Iranian people.