Can Fake News Save Iran's Mullahs?

Iran's protests are proving how the people demand change to a democratic system. These nationwide demonstrations, rejecting the entirety of Iran's regime, and U.S. President Donald Trump's positions, alongside other administration officials such as Vice President Pence and UN Ambassador Nicki Haley, have angered Iran's lobbyists and appeasement supporters in the U.S. They have launched retaliatory measures supporting Tehran.

Protesters were heard chanting, "Death to Khamenei," "Death to Rouhani" and "Reformists, principalists, end of story," expressing their abhorrence of the ruling regime.

As protests grew, Tehran launched a wave of crackdowns, arrests, torture in prisons, and a series of suspicious "suicides" among those arrested, all to create a climate of fear. At the same time, Iran began publishing fake news to divert attention and render disappointment among protesters, and isolate international support.

Reports citing Iran's officials indicate 5,000 arrests, including 1,400 women. The Iranian opposition, however, says at least 8,000 were apprehended and over 50 were murdered. The international community expressed concerns over prisoners' conditions.

The University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies, which generally supports the regime, has attempted to claim that the Iranian majority desire to maintain the regime in power and oppose U.S. support for the protesters. For this purpose, they conducted a fake telephone poll by calling people inside Iran.

The Washington Post reported a segment of this poll as such:

“The poll, released on Friday by the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) and IranPoll, found comparatively little support for changing Iran's political system or relaxing strict Islamic law and suggested that criticism of Iranian foreign policy in Syria and Iraq was not as widely shared by the general population.
"Iranians also felt expressions of support for the protesters from President Trump and other U.S. officials did not help those demonstrating, the survey found, with 39 percent saying they hurt the protesters' demands and 9 percent saying they helped. When asked for their opinion on the U.S. government, 85 percent of Iranians were found to have a very unfavorable opinion of it; less than 1 percent had a very favorable opinion.
"The poll also found that generally, Iranians were happy with the way authorities had handled the protests, with roughly two-thirds saying police handled the protests very or somewhat well, and a slightly smaller about (64 percent) saying they used an appropriate amount of force.”

It’s interesting how those behind these polls chose to telephone individuals inside Iran, people living under a vicious dictatorship whose communications are controlled. Authorities summarily hunt down and arrest those taking part in protests. They are arrested without any warrants and transferred to unknown locations. The bodies of a number of those arrested are dumped in public with signs of torture.

In such circumstances, would anyone in Iran asked about regime change actually provide their true opinions?

Such questions were most likely addressed to regime officials and their relatives, as the majority of the Iranian people are living in poverty, struggling with unemployment due to rampaging government corruption, forced to sell body parts to make ends meet, and all the while fearing arrest and execution.

Pro-Iran advocate Barbara Slavin and the Atlantic Council were behind this survey. The questionnaire was carried out by IranPoll, noted for its affiliation to Tehran and former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was presented by the University of Maryland to provide some legitimacy.

Concerning the results of the poll, Slavin goes further and directly insults the Iranian people by saying:

"The survey shows that Qasem Soleimani --  the head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a man under US sanctions -- remains the most popular figure among regime stalwarts. According to the poll, he is gaining in popularity with an 83% approval rating now compared to 73% two years ago.
"President Hassan Rouhani, meanwhile, has seen a noticeable slide, from 82% approval two years ago to just over 65% now. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's numbers have also gone south, with 68% approval now versus 78% in 2016."

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/02/can_fake_news_save_irans_mullahs.html#ixzz56SYpDcCd
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Regime Change Is Coming In Iran

As the ultimatum begins in regards to demands made by U.S. President Donald Trump to make a final decision on the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), we are a witnessing a wave of tensions and grave concerns inside the Iranian regime.

The parallel nature of this ultimatum with the nationwide uprising aiming to overthrow the Iranian regime, beginning on December 28 and continuing to this day, is bound to place Tehran before a major impasse.

In contrast to previous encounters when Tehran considered such challenges as bluffs, this time around Iranian regime officials are revealing their fears and taking these threats “very seriously.”

President Trump also upped the ante in his stand-off with Iran, vowing US support for street protests against Tehran’s clerical regime.

“America stands with the people of Iran in their courageous struggle for freedom,” he declared.

The question is what solutions lay before Tehran? Can the regime surpass this crisis? How will the international community support the nations of Iran and the entire region in realizing true and lasting peace?

“Breaths will be held for 120 days and it appears this is the game plan U.S. Donald Trump has traced for Iran and the [JCPOA],” according to the state-run E’temad daily.

Tehran has a history of resorting to exporting crises, terrorist threats and meddling in its neighbors’ internal affairs. Through such measures, this regime was able to redirect focus away from the JCPOA.

Considering the latest protests, however, eliminating any domestic and international legitimacy this regime may have enjoyed and significantly threatening its very existence, Tehran no longer possesses its prior capabilities.

In such circumstances, any adventurous and crisis-developing projects will backfire and further plunge Tehran into its current quagmire. The Iran-backed Houthis launching a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh, for example, came at a very high price for Tehran. The international community, especially the U.S. and Europe, are now allying to halt Iran’s missile ambitions and meddling across the region.

Iranian officials are desperately searching to expand their economic ties with European and East Asian countries to gain support for their dictatorship’s very survival.

All the while, as explained by Iranian officials, such major economic deals aimed at purchasing goods and increasing imports, will deepen the recession crisis and destroy what is left of domestic production. Unemployment will skyrocket, inviting even more jobless protesters into the streets to fuel the current uprising. On the other hand, due to Trump’s ultimatum, no company is willing to risk long-term economic contracts selling anything other than consumable goods.

Reactions from Iranian regime officials in the scenario of Washington exiting the JCPOA further detail Iran’s stalemate. Those close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei advocate relying on domestic capabilities and an “internally-dependent economy.”

Figures close to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani are encouraging improving relations with Europe and distancing the Green Continent from the U.S. However, Iran’s own political instability and the deeply structured U.S.-Europe economic relations leave such a scenario highly unlikely.

In the meantime, there are reports of closed-door negotiations with Iran over its ballistic missile program and the Middle East meddling. Of course, these negotiations were announced prior to Washington’s ultimatum.

It appears that the Europeans are increasing pressures on Iran following Trump’s warning.

“The German, French and British foreign ministers — together with Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief — agreed with Iran to hold an ‘intensive and very serious dialogue’ on Tehran’s missile program and regional influence,” according to the Financial Times (citing the German Foreign Ministry).

“France’s foreign minister said on Sunday he would visit Iran on March 5 to discuss its ballistic missile program and the nuclear deal agreed with world powers in 2015, as tensions between the two countries rise,” according to Reuters.

Without a doubt, the international community should place negotiations over human rights and save the lives of protesters detained during the recent uprising, along with all political prisoners, as a top priority. The shameful neglect of Iran’s human rights violations, aiming to obtain a new agreement with Tehran, should not be repeated.

Although Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman denies any such talks, only two options lay before Tehran.

Either succumb to major setbacks in relation to its ballistic missile program, refrain from meddling across the region and begin respecting human rights, or brace for crippling sanctions.

Considering increasing Iran’s domestic crises, both options will eventually result in regime change.

Shahriar Kia is an Iranian dissident and a political analyst writing about Iran and the Middle East.

Iran's Future, In Its Own Words

On the very sensitive subject of how Iran plans to confront ongoing protests, described by some as an uprising, all the while attempting to resolve the very issues engulfing the ruling regime, there are critical concerns raising from various voices within.

And considering U.S. President Donald Trump's powerful State of the Union message, underscoring "America stands with the people of Iran in their courageous struggle for freedom," the stakes at hand in the months ahead for Tehran are extremely high.

Iran's state-linked media are a good source, shedding significant and noteworthy light on the seemingly obscure nature of the Iranian regime.

The common tone heard in all such messages is hopelessness. Those loyal to the faction of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei see the solution in sacking the regime's president, Hassan Rouhani.

Arguments from the other side of the aisle in Tehran's politics rely on warning the Khamenei camp that such a scenario will not end the regime's escalating quandaries. This is only the beginning and there is no stopping this train, adding the entirety of this regime is in the crosshairs.

There are those who believe dark days await those sitting on the throne in Tehran, speaking of future uprising waves. Providing no solutions, their words can mean nothing but succumbing to an inevitable downfall.

"Those who have continuously spread despair and anxiety through their platforms in state TV/radio and Friday prayers (in reference to the Khamenei camp) seek to portray Rouhani as incompetent. They issue and chant slogans of 'Death to Rouhani,' failing to answer the inescapable question of who after Rouhani. The answer is obvious: surpassing Rouhani means overcoming the government, reaching the very principle of our state, and finally surpassing the Islamic republic itself," according to the Tadbir24 website, known for its affiliation to the Rouhani camp.

Interesting is how this piece considers Rouhani a synonym of the ruling state, or at least the velayat-e faqih regime's last chance of survival, warning surpassing Rouhani is tantamount to the end of the clerical rule altogether.

Protesters in the streets, however, are crystal clear in their intentions and how they view the overall regime apparatus. Chanting "Death to Rouhani," "Death to Khamenei," and most interestingly, "Reformists, principalists, end of story," the Iranian people are demanding sweeping changes, accepting nothing short of regime change. This ends Iran's scheme of portraying a system established on two parties of conservatives and reformists.

What kind of regime sends children to war?

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Although the US Treasury Department has been instructed by President Donald Trump to impose new sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) because of its support for terrorism, the Iranian regime shows no signs of backing down from its violations of international laws and interventionist policies in the region, particularly in Arab nations. In fact, Tehran is ratcheting up breaches of international law, military adventurism and expansionist policies. 

One linked issue that has received less time in the spotlight is the intersection between the Iranian regime and the involvement of children in armed conflicts. 
There are six grave violations that are identified by the UN Security Council. One of them is recruiting, abusing or exploiting children during conflicts.
One prominent example of Iran’s involvement in such cases is the Syrian conflict. In the last six years of the Syrian conflict, the Islamic Republic has shown that it will resort to any tool in order to maintain Bashar Assad and his forces in power. One of these tools has been the increasing recruitment of foreign children, both in Iran and elsewhere, in order to fight in the front lines of the Syrian battlefields to enable the Syrian and Iranian forces and their militias to suffer fewer casualties and achieve victories.
Two particular Iranian organizations are behind the recruitment; the IRGC and its elite  Quds Force, whose mission is to operate beyond Iran’s borders in order to export the revolutionary principles of the Islamic Republic and safeguard Iran’s geopolitical interest. 
Leaders of the IRGC and Quds Force implement different tactics to recruit children. The Iranian regime normally preys on children and families who are vulnerable for various reasons. 
Some children come from immigrant families. The families are lured to give up their children to fight in conflicts in exchange for a better position in Iran. Other children are refugees who are seduced by promises of legal residency status and permits. It is extremely difficult to obtain a legal residency permit in the Islamic Republic even for those refugees who have been living there for decades. 
In addition, many of these children come from lower socio-economic class. The Iranian regime exploits their poverty and recruits them in exchange for financial incentives. Reports from human rights organizations indicate that currently not only does the Iranian regime recruit children, but Iran-backed militia are also engaged in such activities. 
The UN’s Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary General for Children and Armed Conflicts states that ending such violations is “the focus of its Special Representative’s work and advocacy.” Nevertheless it does not seem that any concrete and successful actions have been taken to prevent the Iranian regime from abusing children in conflicts.

The IRGC, the Quds Force and Iran-backed militias are breaking international law by recruiting children to fight in Syria.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Ironically, Iran is a signatory to the Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child, which focuses on the involvement of children in armed conflict, which was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2000 and went into force in 2002. The Protocol states that 18 is the minimum age for participation in wars and armed conflict. It clearly states that the protocol is a commitment that states will not recruit children under the age of 18 to send them to the battlefield. States will not conscript soldiers below the age of 18. States should take all possible measures to prevent such recruitment — including legislation to prohibit and criminalize the recruitment of children under 18 and involve them in hostilities. States will demobilize anyone under 18 conscripted or used in hostilities and will provide physical, and psychological recovery services and help their social reintegration. Armed groups distinct from the armed forces of a country should not, under any circumstances, recruit or use in hostilities anyone under 18.
Human Rights Watch’s latest report raised alarm about the Iranian regime’s role in recruiting Afghan children. Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, said: “Iran should immediately end the recruitment of child soldiers and bring back any Afghan children it has sent to fight in Syria. Rather than preying on vulnerable immigrant and refugee children, the Iranian authorities should protect all children and hold those responsible for recruiting Afghan children to account.”
More importantly, since reports by human rights organizations indicate that Iran recruits children as young as 15, Iran is committing another violation of international law which is considered a war crime by the International Criminal Court and is completely prohibited.
The increasing recruitment of children by the Iranian regime to fight in conflicts not only has serious psychological and physical implications for the children and their families, but also inflicts serious damage on the security and stability of the region. It is incumbent on the international community and human rights organizations to follow up on their promises, take immediate action and hold the Iranian leaders responsible for violating international law, abusing human rights and children, and committing a war crime. 
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh